Who Should Win Best Supporting Actor?

Five actors are nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday. The precursors split three ways: Jacob Elordi won the Critics Choice for "Frankenstein," Stellan Skarsgård won the Golden Globe for "Sentimental Value," and Sean Penn won both the BAFTA and Actor Award for "One Battle After Another." Penn leads Gold Derby predictions at roughly 70%. Also in the field: Benicio del Toro in "One Battle After Another" and Delroy Lindo in "Sinners." The twist: the frontrunner has skipped every ceremony so far and might skip the Oscars too.

1. Penn Has the Precursors and the Track Record (BAFTA, Actor Awards, Gold Derby)

Two-time Oscar winner. BAFTA and Actor Award. The math says he wins — if he bothers to show up.

Penn is the clear statistical favorite. He won both the BAFTA and Actor Award for his role as Steven J. Lockjaw in "One Battle After Another." The Actor Award supporting actor category has matched the Oscar winner for nine consecutive years. This is his first BAFTA win. He is already a two-time Oscar winner — for "Mystic River" in 2003 and "Milk" in 2008 — and a five-time nominee.

The campaign absence is the wildcard. Penn was not present at the BAFTAs (Gillian Anderson accepted on his behalf) and did not attend the Actor Awards. Variety has reported on whether Penn will even attend the Oscars. The Academy doesn't typically punish no-shows, but in a year where the competition is real, skipping everything is a choice.

2. Elordi Is the Chaos Candidate (Critics Choice, Frankenstein, Gold Derby)

He won the Critics Choice, he's 27, and the last time the precursors split like this, Mahershala Ali won.

Elordi's Critics Choice win keeps him in the conversation. He won for his performance as The Creature in Guillermo del Toro's "Frankenstein," which has 9 Oscar nominations. This is his first Oscar nomination. Gold Derby has drawn a direct comparison to Mahershala Ali's 2017 win — Ali won the Critics Choice but lost the Globe and SAG, then won the Oscar anyway in a chaotic split year.

The transformative performance argument favors him. Del Toro's "Frankenstein" is a prestige adaptation with a first-time nominee delivering a physical, nearly wordless performance opposite Oscar Isaac. In a category with two-time winners and veteran character actors, Elordi is the fresh face — and the Academy has shown it likes anointing new talent in supporting categories.

3. Lindo Is the Heart of the Category (Sinners, First Nomination at 73)

Five decades of work. Zero precursor wins. First Oscar nomination at 73. And he's in the year's most-nominated film.

Delroy Lindo's nomination is the story of the category. He received his first Oscar nomination at 73 for his role as Delta Slim in "Sinners," after five decades of acting. He was snubbed by every major precursor — no Globe, no BAFTA, no Actor Award, no Critics Choice. Variety compares him to Marcia Gay Harden, who won the Oscar without any precursor recognition.

The film gives him institutional support. "Sinners" is the year's most-nominated film, and if the Academy decides to reward it across the board, Lindo is the supporting player who benefits. A win would validate a career that includes "Malcolm X," "Clockers," "Da 5 Bloods," and dozens of other roles that went unrecognized by the Academy.

Where This Lands

Penn has the strongest precursor position — two wins, including the Actor Award that has matched the Oscar for nine straight years. On the other hand, the precursors split three ways this year, which means the lock isn't as firm as that streak suggests. Elordi has the chaos-year precedent working for him and a transformative turn in a prestige film. Lindo has no precursors but the most compelling personal narrative. Skarsgård — the Golden Globe winner, 74 years old, the first Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominee for an international film — is the kind of dark horse the Academy notices when the frontrunners cancel each other out. And two nominees from the same film (Penn and del Toro) could split votes, which only makes the category harder to call. Where this lands depends on whether voters follow the math, the moment, or the chaos.