The US and Israel struck Iran on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, tanker traffic is down 90%, and roughly 18% of global oil supply has been temporarily removed from the market. Brent crude hit $126 a barrel at its peak, then crashed 11% on March 10 after Trump said the war is "very complete, pretty much." It settled at $87.80. The national average for regular gasoline is $3.54 per gallon — up 21% from a month ago and the highest since 2024. In California, drivers are paying $5.20. The question isn't whether prices went up. It's how long they stay there.

1. It's a Blip (Trump Administration, House GOP)

Short-term pain for long-term peace. Prices will drop as soon as we finish the job.

This is temporary and everyone should relax. Trump posted on Truth Social that "short term oil prices" are "a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace." He called the spike "a little glitch." House Speaker Mike Johnson called it a "blip" and promised gas prices "will come back down" in "a couple of weeks." Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the disruption would last "weeks, certainly not months."

Oil's 11% drop on March 10 is their evidence. After Trump told CBS the war is "very complete, pretty much," Brent plunged from near $100 to $87.80. The administration's argument: as Iran's military capability degrades, Hormuz reopens, oil flows, prices normalize. Wright said prices will fall once the US "knocks out Iran's ability to hinder tanker traffic."

2. It Could Get Much Worse (GasBuddy, Goldman Sachs, CSIS, Wood Mackenzie)

The question isn't whether oil dropped today. It's whether Hormuz is still closed tomorrow.

Every scenario depends on how long the strait stays shut. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan predicts gas will climb to $3.50-$3.65 per gallon in the near term, with some states seeing 20-50 cent weekly jumps. That's the optimistic case. Goldman Sachs has modeled a scenario where gas hits $3.50 and inflation becomes a permanent problem. If Brent tops $150 — possible if the war drags on months — gas could hit $5 to $5.50 nationally. Prediction markets put 63% odds on gas exceeding $4.50 by the end of March.

The supply-side tools are limited. The SPR could help if the war lasts weeks, but Wood Mackenzie says it "cannot fully offset the supply loss" from Hormuz. Even draining the entire reserve would cover only about three weeks of strait shipments. OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day, but most of their spare capacity sits in Saudi Arabia and the UAE — countries that also need Hormuz to export. The G7 met on March 10 to discuss a coordinated strategic reserve release, something done only five times in history.

And gas prices don't fall when oil falls. Oil dropped 11% on March 10. Gas won't drop 11%. Crude now accounts for only about 44% of the gasoline price. Refinery crack spreads are widening because the US has fewer refineries than it used to. When oil goes up, gas follows fast. When oil goes down, gas takes its time.

3. The Political Damage Is Already Done (NBC News, Axios, Battleground Pollsters)

It doesn't matter if gas comes back down. Voters already know what it felt like to go up.

Trump's approval on cost of living just hit its lowest point. An NBC poll found 36% of registered voters approve of his handling of inflation and the cost of living; 62% disapprove. Only 29% of Americans approve of the Iran war, and a majority expect gas prices to keep rising. Fortune spoke to Trump voters directly: "He said he was going to bring gas down."

The spike is hitting hardest in the states that matter most for 2026. Axios reported that the three biggest diesel price jumps landed in Senate battleground states — Texas (+111.6 cents), North Carolina (+110.5 cents), and Georgia (+107.9 cents). CNBC reported that gas prices are threatening Republican plans to run the midterms on affordability. CNN said the administration has "started to panic" about oil prices.

Democrats are already running on this. Rep. Thomas Suozzi and others are framing the spike as a direct consequence of Trump's Iran war. The political problem for Republicans: even if prices come down, voters remember the spike. And if the war drags on through the summer driving season, midterm candidates will be running against $4+ gas in the most contested states in the country.

Where This Lands

Gas is at $3.54 and climbing. The White House says it's temporary. Analysts say it depends on the war. Pollsters say the damage is already registering. The honest answer is that nobody knows — because nobody knows when the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and that's the only variable that matters. If the war ends in weeks, prices probably settle back around $3. If it drags into summer, $4.50 to $5 becomes a real possibility. Either way, the bill just landed on the kitchen table, and midterm voters are going to remember exactly how much it cost.

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