The national average hit $3.96 a gallon on March 23 -- up from $2.98 in late February, an 81-cent jump in under a month. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan expects it to cross $4 this week. California is already at $5.61. Brent crude broke $114 a barrel on March 22, the highest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Everyone agrees gas is expensive. Nobody agrees on why.

1. The Iran War Did This (Patrick De Haan, IEA, Goldman Sachs)

Twenty percent of the world's oil supply runs through a strait that's effectively closed -- the math writes itself.

The Strait of Hormuz is the bottleneck. Goldman Sachs reports tanker traffic through Hormuz has fallen roughly 90% since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. More than 20 million barrels a day normally transit the strait -- about a fifth of global crude supply. The IEA director called this "the greatest global energy security challenge in history."

The price timeline tracks the war perfectly. Gas was $2.98 in late February. It shot up 60 cents in the first two weeks of fighting. By March 22, with Brent crude at $114 a barrel, the pump was closing in on $4. De Haan's assessment: "Until we see a meaningful resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, upward pressure on fuel prices is likely to persist."

The administration's own actions confirm the cause. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the administration is "using Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down." You don't deploy emergency supply-side measures for a seasonal blip.

2. It Was Coming Anyway (Chatham House, EIA, Refinery Analysts)

The Iran war accelerated a price spike that was already baked in -- tariffs, refinery closures, and thinning inventories were doing the work before a single bomb dropped.

Chatham House published the headline before the war started: "US energy prices were set to rise long before the Iran war." Trump's 10% tariff on Canadian crude oil -- in place since March 2025 -- hits 60% of US oil imports. Midwest refiners, which process 70% Canadian crude, are passing the cost through. Estimates range from 15 to 70 cents a gallon depending on how much refiners absorb.

The US is closing refineries while demand holds steady. Phillips 66 shut its Wilmington refinery at the end of 2025 -- 139,000 barrels a day gone. Valero's Benicia refinery outside San Francisco, another 170,000 barrels a day, is scheduled to close in April. The EIA forecasts motor gasoline inventories will fall to their lowest levels since 2000 by the end of 2026.

Refinery margins tell the real story. Crude oil now accounts for only about 44% of what you pay at the pump, down from 53% last year. The rest is refinery crack spreads -- margins that have nearly doubled since 2024. Even when crude drops, gas doesn't follow proportionally because fewer refineries means less competition for your gallon.

3. Stop Panicking -- This Is Temporary (Trump Administration, VP Vance)

Gas was $5.03 under Biden. At $3.96, this is a war premium that'll vanish when the war ends -- not a structural crisis.

Trump called it "a little glitch." His full argument: oil prices "will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over" and the spike is "a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace." Speaker Johnson called it "a blip." Energy Secretary Wright said the disruption would last "weeks, certainly not months."

Vance deployed the Biden comparison. Current prices are "nothing like what we saw at the peak of the Biden administration" -- $5.03 in June 2022, the highest ever recorded. The implicit argument: if $5 gas didn't break America under Biden, $4 gas under Trump is manageable.

4. Who Cares Why -- It's Trump's Fault (Voters, Polls)

The structural causes don't matter if voters already know who to blame.

But the polls suggest voters aren't buying it. An Axios poll from March 12 found 48% of Americans blame Trump for high gas prices -- more than any other factor. His approval on inflation sits at 36%. And the battleground math is ugly: diesel spiked 111 cents in Texas, 110 in North Carolina, and 107 in Georgia -- three states Republicans can't afford to lose in November.

Where This Lands

The Iran war is the obvious trigger -- an 81-cent spike that tracks day-by-day with the fighting. On the other hand, the structural argument is harder to dismiss: tariffs on Canadian crude, two major refinery closures, and thinning inventories were pushing prices up before the first bomb dropped. The administration's "temporary glitch" framing depends on the war ending fast and crude dropping back below $80. If it doesn't, $4 gas becomes $4 gas that can't blame a war anymore -- just a smaller refinery system, wider margins, and a tariff that never went away. Where this lands depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens before voters decide who to blame.

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