American and Iranian negotiators met in Geneva and agreed on "guiding principles" for a nuclear deal, and Iran's Foreign Minister called it "good progress" and committed to exchanging draft proposals within two weeks. But the same week, both sides started flexing their military might.
Here are the different perspectives on the issue:
1. Diplomacy Is a Trap (Administration Hawks)
Iran is buying time with these talks, and the U.S. should stop selling it to them.
The red lines. VP Vance: Iranian negotiators "are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through" the administration's demands. Secretary Rubio has pushed for zero uranium enrichment on Iranian soil. Iran says missiles are off the table, full stop.
The Netanyahu factor. The Israeli PM made an urgent trip to Washington. Fifty-two senators and 177 members of Congress signed a letter rejecting any deal that allows enrichment. Army chief Lt. Gen. Zamir warned Israel will strike "wherever required, on near and distant fronts."
2. The Deal Is Real (Diplomatic Track)
Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner believe Geneva produced genuine progress.
The evidence. Both sides presented draft positions. Iran agreed to return with detailed proposals in two weeks. Araghchi told CBS the new agreement could be "better" than the 2015 JCPOA. The fact that talks didn't collapse after two rounds, and Iran didn't walk away despite the military buildup, suggests Tehran is weighing the choice seriously.
Iran's economic crisis. Nationwide protests erupted in December 2025, driven by economic desperation. Over 70% of Iranians prioritize economic stability over nuclear advancement. The regime is dealing with genuine domestic instability.
3. Zero Enrichment Is the Problem (Arms Control Experts)
Some say the administration's central demand -- zero enrichment -- may be designed to guarantee failure rather than prevent a bomb.
The technical case. The Arms Control Association: "Zero Enrichment Is an Unnecessary, Unrealistic Objective." An effective deal doesn't need to eliminate enrichment. It needs to extend breakout time from near-zero to a timeline that gives the international community room to respond. Obama abandoned the zero-enrichment demand in 2012, which enabled the JCPOA.
The sabotage reading. If the U.S. insists on a condition Iran will never accept, the diplomatic track becomes cover for a military timeline that was always the real plan.
4. Don't Use Our Airspace (Gulf States)
America's Gulf allies have publicly refused to support strikes on Iran.
The rejection. Saudi Arabia and the UAE denied airspace for military operations. Crown Prince MBS told Iran's president directly that Riyadh won't permit strikes from Saudi territory. Oman is mediating. Turkey opposes American military action.
The fear. Gulf states aren't siding with Iran. They're afraid of retaliation on their own soil: missiles and drones targeting facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain. Strait of Hormuz disruption is existential for their economies.
5. Tehran Is Arguing With Itself (Iran's Internal Divide)
The most important negotiation may not be happening in Geneva, but within Iran itself.
The reformists. President Pezeshkian's camp sees diplomacy as economic survival. The Reform Front has urged voluntary suspension of enrichment to prevent collapse. Former President Rouhani has warned the fiercest resistance to talks often comes from factions afraid of who benefits politically if diplomacy succeeds.
The hardliners. Parliament cleric Naghdali has called for Iran to not just close the Strait but disrupt Europe's shipping routes. The IRGC's war room is "active and forces are ready at any moment." Ayatollah Khamenei sits above the divide, allowing neither surrender nor uncontrolled confrontation.
6. The Market Is the Tell (Energy Traders)
Oil traders may be the most honest assessment of the situation available.
The volatility. Prices have swung 4-5% in single sessions depending on whether the day's headline was diplomatic or military. Traders are explicitly pricing Strait of Hormuz disruption as a material tail event.
What it means. If the market believed diplomacy was going to work, oil would be falling. If the market believed war was inevitable, oil would be spiking past $100. Instead it's oscillating. The people with the most money on the line see this as genuinely uncertain.
Where This Lands
Hawks think Iran is stalling. Envoys think progress is real. Arms control experts think the demands are designed to fail. Gulf allies won't provide airspace. Tehran is internally divided. Energy markets are pricing genuine uncertainty. What's unresolved is whether the talks represent a genuine path to a deal, or diplomatic cover for a military timeline that was always the plan.
Sources
Al Jazeera, "Iran says 'good progress' made in nuclear talks with US in Geneva," February 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/18/irans-araghchi-hails-good-progress-in-nuclear-talks-with-us
CBS News, "Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, Face the Nation transcript," February 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/abbas-araghchi-iranian-foreign-nation-face-the-nation-transcript-02-22-2026/
CNN, "As Iran talks drag on, questions emerge over how long Trump will indulge diplomacy," February 2026, https://us.cnn.com/2026/02/17/politics/trump-iran-negotiation-war-diplomacy
CNBC, "U.S. military preparing for potentially weeks-long Iran operations," February 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/14/us-military-preparing-for-extended-iran-operations-reuters.html
Arms Control Association, "Zero Enrichment Is an Unnecessary, Unrealistic Objective to Prevent an Iranian Bomb," 2025, https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-briefs/2025-06/zero-enrichment-unnecessary-unrealistic-objective-prevent-iranian-bomb
Arab Center DC, "Political Divisions in Iran and the Uncertain Path to a New Nuclear Deal," 2026, https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/political-divisions-in-iran-and-the-uncertain-path-to-a-new-nuclear-deal/
Responsible Statecraft, "Iran War: Gulf States' Fears," 2026, https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-war-gulf-states/
Jerusalem Post, "UAE denies airspace for Iran strikes," February 2026, https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-884642
CNBC, "Oil prices swing on Iran talks and military tensions," February 2026, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/18/oil-prices-today-iran-trump-nuclear-talks.html
Iran International, "Iran's IRGC war room active," February 2026, https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602027098
Times of Israel, "Israelis split on joining possible US strike on Iran," February 2026, https://www.timesofisrael.com/israelis-split-on-joining-possible-us-strike-on-iran-survey-finds/
NPR, "Trump's administration demands on Iran nuclear talks," February 2026, https://www.npr.org/2026/02/17/g-s1-110365/u-s-iran-nuclear-talks-geneva