The Strait of Hormuz carried 153 vessel transits per day before the war began. Since March 1, that number dropped to 13. Iran's IRGC declared the strait closed on March 2, then backed it up -- at least 10 tankers have been struck, targeted, or attacked since. Yesterday, CNN reported that Iran has begun laying mines in the strait -- a few dozen so far, with the capacity to deploy hundreds more. The US destroyed 16 Iranian minelaying vessels the same day. Around 400 tankers are stuck in the Gulf.

1. Just Escort the Ships (Trump Administration, Hawks)

The world's most powerful navy can keep a shipping lane open. This is what aircraft carriers are for.

Trump promised escorts. The world is waiting. On March 3, he said the US Navy "will escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary." He also ordered the US to provide political risk insurance to at-risk ships. On March 8, he told CBS he was "thinking about taking over" the strait entirely.

But the administration can't get its story straight. On March 10, Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on X that the US Navy had "successfully" escorted a ship through the strait. The post was deleted minutes later, and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that the US did no such thing. The Energy Department blamed staff for an "incorrectly captioned" post. Oil prices swung wildly -- dropping sharply on Wright's post, then paring losses after the deletion.

The US Navy may not have the capacity anyway. The Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for escorts since the war began, saying it "does not have naval availability." The Pentagon is assessing options under what it's calling "Operation Epic Escort" -- but Gen. Michael Kurilla said the military has only just "started looking at ways" to potentially escort ships.

2. The Navy Is Right to Say No (Military Analysts, CSIS, Brookings)

This isn't an escort mission. It's a gauntlet. The threats are layered from the seabed to the sky.

Iran doesn't need to win a naval battle to close the strait. Brookings analysts noted that Iran doesn't actually need military force here -- "the risk profile for shipping companies and insurance companies" alone has been enough to freeze traffic. And Iran has used force anyway. The IRGC operates around 3,000 small craft capable of swarm attacks, armed with anti-ship missiles, torpedoes, and rocket launchers. They don't plan to beat the US Navy, they plan to make escort operations unsustainably expensive and dangerous.

There's also the whole mine thing. Iran has an estimated 5,000 mines, from simple contact devices to sophisticated influence mines triggered by magnetic or acoustic signatures. A few dozen have been laid so far, and Iran retains 80-90% of its minelaying capacity. US Central Command's destruction of 16 Iranian minelaying vessels barely dents the problem -- and air forces can't stop it. The threat is layered -- mines below, missiles above, drones in between.

The last time the US tried this, the first convoy hit a mine. Operation Earnest Will ran from 1987-1988 during the Iran-Iraq War, escorting Kuwaiti tankers through Hormuz. The very first convoy (the SS Bridgerton) struck a mine on July 21, 1987. Iran has explicitly warned the US: "Before escorting ships through Hormuz, remember 1987 Bridgeton."

3. Maybe The Shadow Fleet Will Save Us? (Dark Fleet Operators, Market Pragmatists)

While the debate rages and bombs explode, ships are turning off their transponders and getting through.

Half the ships transiting Hormuz since March 1 are shadow fleet. Lloyd's List analysis found that about half of all tankers and gas carriers were shadow fleet vessels. Iranian-affiliated and Greek-affiliated ships are leading the charge. At least one tanker completed a full transit carrying approximately one million barrels of Saudi crude.

Some ships are claiming false identities for safe passage. Fortune reported that vessels are claiming to be "Chinese," "Muslim," or "Turkish" to avoid targeting. The dark fleet is finding workarounds that the military hasn't.

But it's still only 10% of normal volume. The dark fleet is moving oil, but nowhere near enough. Iraq has already cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day because it's running out of storage. If this continues for two months, Rystad Energy projects Brent above $110. Four months: $135. The shadow fleet is a pressure valve, not a solution.

Where This Lands

The US promised to keep Hormuz open and hasn't. Iran promised to close it and mostly has. The shadow fleet is running the gap at a fraction of normal volume while 400 tankers sit idle in the Gulf. The question probably isn't whether the US can reopen Hormuz -- it likely can. It's whether the cost of doing so, in mines and missiles and swarm boats, is a price this administration is willing to pay.

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