Why Is Iran Bombing Its Neighbors?

Iran has struck at least ten countries in the past two weeks — Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Azerbaijan, Jordan, Iraq, Oman, and Israel. The targets go well beyond military bases. Iran hit Dubai International Airport, the Fairmont Palm Hotel, a water desalination plant in Bahrain, and residential areas across four countries. The UAE alone counted 165 ballistic missiles, 2 cruise missiles, and 541 drones fired at its territory. Eight US service members have been killed and roughly 140 wounded. Gulf states that publicly promised not to allow attacks on Iran from their territory say they feel betrayed. And the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world's oil moves — has seen shipping drop by 90%.

1. This Makes Good Sense (Tehran Hawks, IRGC Doctrine)

If the US and Israel use your neighbors' territory to bomb you, those neighbors are part of the war. Make them feel it.

Iran's logic is a straightforward cost imposition. Tehran's strategy is not to win a conventional war — it's to make the war expensive enough that everyone wants off-ramps. According to Mona Yacoubian at CSIS, Tehran calculates that if it imposes a high enough cost on the region, Gulf countries will push for de-escalation. If hosting US bases means your airports get hit, maybe you stop hosting US bases.

The Strait of Hormuz is Iran's ultimate leverage. One-fifth of the world's daily oil supply passes through this corridor. Iran doesn't need to close it — just threatening it moved oil from $95 to over $100 a barrel. Major marine insurers cancelled war-risk cover for vessels in Iranian waters. Tanker traffic dropped 90%. The IEA released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — unprecedented.

And the multi-domain approach is working as designed. Missiles hit military bases. Drones overwhelmed air defenses at relatively low cost. Shipping lanes are paralyzed. Fertilizer prices jumped 43% because a third of the global fertilizer trade transits Hormuz. The pain is spreading exactly the way Tehran intended.

2. This Is Really, Really Stupid (Gulf Analysts, Foreign Policy Establishment)

Iran spent years building diplomatic bridges with its neighbors. In two weeks it burned them all.

This has been called a "historic miscalculation" — and the evidence supports it. Iran's stated goal was to punish countries that cooperated with the US. Instead, the strikes unified the Gulf against Iran. The GCC issued an extraordinary condemnation calling the attacks "treacherous" and "heinous." Saudi Arabia called them "reprehensible." Qatar's prime minister described a "big sense of betrayal." The UAE recalled its ambassador from Tehran.

Iran destroyed years of diplomatic progress in a weekend. Tehran had spent years rebuilding relations with Gulf states — the Saudi-Iran rapprochement brokered by China in 2023 was supposed to be the signature achievement of Iranian diplomacy. As one Al Jazeera analysis put it, Iran is "burning the bridges of good neighbourliness." Gulf officials told CNBC the attacks created a "huge trust gap that will last for years."

The civilian targets gutted Iran's credibility. Tehran claimed it was only targeting US military assets. Then drones hit the Fairmont Palm Hotel in Dubai, a water desalination plant in Bahrain, and residential neighborhoods in Kuwait City. Six people were killed in the UAE — all foreign nationals from Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh. These were not US soldiers. Gulf states are now more likely to support the US-Israel campaign, not less — exactly the opposite of what Iran wanted.

3. Who's Actually Running Iran Right Now? (Alex Vatanka, Middle East Institute)

The president apologized. The IRGC kept firing. Someone is in charge, and it's not the elected government.

Pezeshkian's apology was remarkable — and immediately overruled. On March 7, the Iranian president released a prerecorded video saying: "I should apologize to the neighboring countries that were attacked by Iran, on my own behalf." He said the interim leadership council had approved stopping attacks on neighbors. Moments later, the IRGC publicly contradicted him. The next day, new drone strikes hit a water desalination plant in Bahrain. Hardline cleric Hamid Rasai called Pezeshkian's apology "unprofessional, weak and unacceptable."

The IRGC is running the war and picking the next leader. The Revolutionary Guards orchestrated the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as new Supreme Leader after his father's death on February 28. As Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute put it: "Mojtaba owes his position to the Revolutionary Guards and as such he is not going to be as supreme as his father was." The IRGC has consolidated power, overcoming resistance from senior political and clerical figures.

This power struggle matters — it'll tell us whether diplomacy can work. If Pezeshkian can't deliver on a ceasefire promise because the IRGC overrules him, then who do you negotiate with? The contradiction between the apology and the continued strikes suggests either a genuine breakdown in command-and-control, or a deliberate IRGC refusal to follow civilian orders. Either way, it means the people with the most incentive to keep fighting are the people with the guns.

Where This Lands

Iran hit ten countries in two weeks and killed civilians across the Gulf. On one hand, the strategic logic is coherent — if you can paralyze the Strait of Hormuz and make hosting US bases painful enough, you might force de-escalation. On the other hand, every Gulf state that was trying to stay neutral is now calling Iran treacherous, recalling ambassadors, and openly discussing retaliation. The president apologized and the military kept firing, which tells you everything about who's running Iran right now. Where this lands depends on whether the IRGC's cost-imposition logic can work before the diplomatic cost becomes permanent — and on whether anyone in Tehran is actually empowered to negotiate a way out.