On Saturday, President Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran, posting that "the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to." The proposed terms include "immediate, complete, and total opening of the Hormuz Strait" and an end to Iran's nuclear threat. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump on Saturday to urge dialogue; Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, and White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff are mediating. The original memorandum of understanding (MOU), signed June 17, already included a 60-day ceasefire and a Hormuz reopening — but Iran struck commercial ships in July and the US resumed airstrikes, collapsing the deal for the second time.

1. The Deal Is Real This Time (Trump, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Qatar)

Trump and the Gulf states think today's framework is specific enough to hold where the first MOU didn't.

One word sank the first deal: "open." Iran claimed the MOU gave it the right to coordinate all ship transit through Hormuz; the US said "open" meant no coordination required. Today's proposed terms say "immediate, complete, and total opening" — no fees, no Iranian coordination, no room for competing interpretations. It's a harder ask for Iran, but it's not ambiguous.

Saudi Arabia made the call itself. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump directly on Saturday to urge dialogue — not through a statement, not through an intermediary. Qatar and Pakistan built the mediation coalition, Egypt joined it, and Witkoff represents the US in active talks. U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz said Trump is "giving talks some space."

Iran's own government wants this deal. President Masoud Pezeshkian has backed a negotiated settlement throughout. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander — publicly argued that the US and Israel are too militarily strong to "destroy." That's a remarkable concession for a former IRGC official to make in public.

2. But Iran's Hardliners Have Never Agreed to This (Saeed Jalili, IRGC-Affiliated Media, Kayhan)

Iran's hardline faction opposed the first MOU and finds the new terms even harder to accept.

Hormuz access is Iran's only real leverage. They know it. The IRGC and hardline faction have consistently called Hormuz control Iran's "single most important source of leverage in a future conflict." Full, free access with no Iranian coordination — what Trump is now demanding — is what they refused before. Today Iran's defense minister said Iran remains "alert in the face of concrete threats," which wasn't an endorsement.

Iran's hardliners have been explicit. Before announcing the original MOU, Iran reportedly sidelined Saeed Jalili — the Paydari Front leader and Iran's chief deal opponent. It didn't stop the deal from collapsing. Kayhan newspaper wrote that "surrendering to the Great Satan under the guise of an 'antidote' is a betrayal of our long-standing resistance." The hardliners' stated demands haven't changed: no nuclear concessions, keep Hormuz leverage, push US forces out of the region.

3. And Israel Wasn't Even in the Room (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu)

Israel found out about today's cancellation from Trump's social media. Netanyahu's team says Israel isn't bound by the Lebanon terms.

Trump cut Israel out of this decision. Senior Israeli officials told reporters that "President Trump left us in the fog" — officers learned of the cancellation when Trump posted, not from direct communication. Trump had planned the strike as a joint operation with Israel; he called it off after Saturday's calls with Gulf allies, not with Jerusalem.

Netanyahu's team disputes what the deal covers. A Netanyahu adviser said Israel "doesn't consider itself bound" by the Lebanon ceasefire terms in any agreement. Netanyahu publicly said the war's "main goals have been achieved." Israeli political observers said he was justifying a deal he had no say in. His core concern is that Iran's nuclear program gets deferred to future negotiations rather than dismantled now. CSIS analysts added that the deal also "omits Iran's ballistic missile program and proxy support."

Some Republicans are saying the same thing. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said Trump "betrayed us all." Trump himself said Friday that strikes would be "going big." One call from MBS reversed that — and to conservative Republicans, that reads as capitulation.

Where This Lands

By cancelling the strike today, Trump made clear that Gulf diplomacy — Saudi Arabia and Qatar — carries more weight with this White House than Israeli objections or Congressional opposition. Iran's pragmatist government wants a deal; Iran's hardliners have already collapsed one, and they haven't changed their position. Israel is publicly accepting an outcome it didn't choose, while privately reserving the right to act in Lebanon on its own terms. The deal isn't signed — "perimeters agreed" is not a ceasefire, and the last time both sides agreed in principle, the Strait closed again inside three days.

Sources