After a June ceasefire collapsed, the US reimposed its naval blockade of Iran at 4 p.m. ET Tuesday. Within hours, Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones at Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE — targeting US military bases in all six countries. The Strait of Hormuz is already closed. Now the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is signaling it may use Houthi allies in Yemen to shut the Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea gateway that Saudi Arabia has been using to reroute oil since Hormuz went dark. Mohammed al-Farah, a member of the Houthi political bureau, warned that if Bab el-Mandeb closed alongside Hormuz, oil could hit $200 a barrel. Benchmark prices are already at $85.

Washington Says Maximum Pressure Is Working

Trump says Iran has to negotiate — or lose everything.

The blockade came back because Iran never fully reopened Hormuz. The June ceasefire deal required Iran to allow free passage through the strait, but Iran let only four ships through on day one — wartime traffic averaged nine a day. Admiral Brad Cooper, who commands US Central Command, said US forces are "holding Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression that continues to endanger innocent lives." Trump's message to Tehran: "You better make a deal, or you're not going to have anything left." US officials say they're still willing to negotiate — the pressure is meant to force Iran to the table, not end diplomacy.

But Iran Says It'll Widen the War Before It'll Back Down

Tehran says the US broke the deal first — and it's threatening to close every corridor.

Iran isn't treating this as coercion. It's treating it as escalation. Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told US officials: "The era of one-sided deals is over — keep your word or pay the price." Iran's UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani called the US "the aggressor, not the victim." Iran points to US strikes near the perimeter of its Bushehr nuclear power plant as the real violation of the deal. The IRGC's public position is that oil from the region will flow either for everyone or for no one — which means Hormuz stays closed until the Bab el-Mandeb threat becomes real. That's not a negotiating position. That's a promise to escalate.

And the Six Countries Getting Hit Are Pushing Hard for Talks

Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE weren't party to the US-Iran deal — and they're absorbing the missiles anyway.

Gulf capitals are pushing hardest for talks. Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani held separate talks with Iran's foreign minister and Saudi Arabia's foreign minister this week, pressing both sides to recommit to diplomacy. Saudi Arabia condemned what it called "repeated Iranian violations of the sovereignty of neighboring states." Oman summoned Iran's ambassador. Jordan's military intercepted eight of ten incoming Iranian ballistic missiles with no casualties. India and New Zealand also summoned Iranian diplomats and called for de-escalation. These countries aren't neutral — they're US partners — but they're calculating that the current escalation cycle ends in a catastrophe before it ends in an Iranian deal.

Where This Lands

The 60-day deal window runs out in mid-August. Iran is now attacking US military bases across six US-allied countries and threatening to cut the only remaining oil route out of the region. Gulf states getting hit with missiles are still pushing both sides back to the table. The US and Iran have each accused the other of violating the deal, and no neutral party has enough credibility to say who's right. Both sides are still nominally willing to talk. Neither one is stopping what it's doing while they wait for the other to call.

Sources