President Donald Trump said Monday the U.S. will bomb Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility. Speaking to Hugh Hewitt, Trump called it "a possible target for a nice big fat shot right in the front door" and told Iranians to "be ready." He warned a strike would come "today or tomorrow." U.S. Central Command began a third consecutive night of Iran strikes at 4:45 PM ET; whether Pickaxe Mountain was among the targets is not yet confirmed. IAEA inspectors have never set foot inside the site, which sits two kilometers south of Iran's Natanz enrichment facility, and February 2026 satellite imagery showed construction still underway at its tunnel entrances. The renewed strikes come after Iran attacked commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding both countries signed on June 17.

1. Strike the Site (President Donald Trump)

Trump says Iran forfeited any diplomatic protection when it violated the ceasefire — and Pickaxe Mountain is the unfinished business.

The ceasefire is dead, and Iran killed it. Trump declared the June 17 Islamabad MOU effectively over after Iran attacked Hormuz shipping, which the agreement was designed to protect. Trump's argument: Iran already showed it won't honor deals, so striking its most sensitive remaining nuclear site is the logical next step.

Pickaxe Mountain is the program's insurance policy. Iran's stated purpose for the site is centrifuge assembly to replace the Natanz centrifuge hall damaged in 2020. But analysts say the facility's depth and scale make uranium enrichment or near-weapons-grade storage an equally plausible use. Trump cited the absence of IAEA access as reason to act now, rather than wait for inspectors who can't get in anyway.

2. The Bombs Won't Reach It (Weapons Analysts, Institute for Science and International Security)

The most powerful conventional bunker-buster in the U.S. arsenal maxes out at about 60 meters of earth or 18 meters of concrete. Analysts put Pickaxe Mountain at 80–100 meters down.

The math doesn't work. The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the weapon the U.S. used at Fordow, can penetrate approximately 60 meters of earth or roughly 18 meters of reinforced concrete at standard strength. Analysts estimate Pickaxe Mountain's tunnel halls sit between 80 and 100 meters underground. Granite is considerably harder than standard concrete, which widens the gap further.

A failed strike could make things worse. Iran reportedly captured an intact GBU-57 and may be reverse-engineering it. If the strike fails, it hands Iran proof that deep burial works and tells its engineers exactly where the weapon falls short. Any enrichment material stays underground, and Iran has fresh reason to retaliate.

3. Congress Never Authorized This (Rep. Thomas Massie, Rep. Ro Khanna, Brennan Center for Justice)

Striking a nuclear facility is a different threshold than hitting military targets — and the president hasn't gotten Congress to sign off on even the basic strikes.

This is unconstitutional without a congressional vote. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) called Trump's Iran strikes "acts of war unauthorized by Congress" and is working with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) to force a new congressional vote on the resumed strikes. The House voted down a prior war powers resolution 219–212 in March, but the MOU's collapse has revived the push. The Brennan Center for Justice concluded the strikes exceed the president's powers without a declaration of war. Trump submitted a 60-day war powers notification to Congress instead.

Bombing Pickaxe Mountain would end the only diplomatic path still open. Pakistan and Qatar, which brokered the original Islamabad MOU, are still trying to bring both sides back to the table. The MOU's 60-day window was meant to open negotiations on Iran's nuclear program — a topic the text itself explicitly deferred rather than resolved. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer demanded an immediate congressional briefing after strikes resumed. Critics say targeting a nuclear facility makes any return to that negotiating window essentially impossible.

Where This Lands

Trump says the strike on Pickaxe Mountain is coming, and CENTCOM has already started the third night of attacks. Hawks argue Iran left no alternative when it blew up the ceasefire. Military experts say conventional weapons probably can't destroy the facility at its depth — the gap between the bomb's reach and the site's depth is larger than the administration has acknowledged. And war powers critics — including one Republican — say that even if the strike is militarily sound, Congress has never voted to authorize a war with Iran, let alone an attack on its nuclear infrastructure.

Sources