Iran launched a ballistic missile at a U.S. military base in Saudi Arabia on Saturday — the first direct Iranian strike on the kingdom since the April attack on the Jubail petrochemical complex. It came on the seventh consecutive night of U.S. strikes against Iran, after a June ceasefire collapsed when Iran resumed ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump declared the truce "over" on July 7–8. Iran also hit Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait on Saturday; Jordan intercepted 10 Iranian missiles, a Kuwaiti power plant caught fire, and Kuwait City's airport shut down. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed two oil tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz; U.S. Central Command called that claim false. IRGC military adviser Mohsen Rezaei warned: "If U.S. attacks continue for another two or three days, we will enter a phase of full-scale offensive operations."

1. Keep Escalating (Trump Administration)

The administration says only military pressure will bring Iran back to the table.

The strikes are working and Iran wants to negotiate. On July 15, President Trump told Fox News that Iran "wants to meet" and threatened: "Next week it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. We're going to knock out all their power plants, we're going to knock out all their bridges, unless they get to the table and negotiate." The administration is also weighing expanded options, up to and including ground forces. Iran's nuclear facilities were already struck during the June 12-day war. The administration argues that military pressure is what drove Iran to that round of talks, and that it can do so again.

Backing off now would hand Iran a win. The administration argues the ceasefire collapsed because Iran cheated — resuming ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz after signing the memorandum of understanding. The administration argues that agreeing to a new ceasefire — without any change in Iranian conduct — would undercut U.S. deterrence across the region.

2. But the War Is Spreading (Bipartisan Senate Dissent + Military Analysts)

Seven nights of strikes haven't produced a deal — they've widened the war to the whole Gulf.

Iran hasn't backed down — it has expanded the war. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan all took Iranian fire on July 18. Gas prices have climbed about $1.50 a gallon since the war started in late February. Retired Colonel Peter Mansoor, a military history professor at Ohio State University, says further escalation would be "expensive, unpopular with Americans, and further deplete critical U.S. military munitions." Monica Duffy Toft, a professor of international politics at Tufts University, warns this could become a "forever war." She says the administration keeps betting that "stepped-up U.S. military strikes will ultimately force the regime to yield," but that "this could linger on for some time."

Republican senators are losing patience. Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri, who held back on earlier war powers votes while a ceasefire held, now wants a quick end; he's cited the gas price pain on American households. Senator John Curtis of Utah said directly on July 14 that Congress needs to draw a line on what military action can get funded until lawmakers have formally weighed in.

3. And Congress Still Hasn't Voted (War Powers Advocates, Bipartisan)

This war started without an authorization from Congress and has gone on for nearly five months.

The 60-day War Powers clock never stopped. Senator Adam Schiff of California filed a new War Powers Resolution after the ceasefire collapsed, arguing the clock on unauthorized military action kept running even during the truce. Co-sponsors include Senators Tim Kaine of Virginia, Andy Kim of New Jersey, Jeff Merkley of Oregon, and Chris Van Hollen of Maryland. Katherine Yon Ebright, a national security attorney at NYU Law, put it plainly: "We just haven't seen anything that actually concludes hostilities in a durable way that gives us peace."

Congress voted to end the war. In June 2026, both chambers passed a bipartisan war termination resolution: the House 215–208 on June 3, the Senate 50–48 on June 23, with four Republicans — Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Rand Paul, and Lisa Murkowski — voting yes. The White House called it an "unconstitutional legislative veto" and argued the ceasefire meant there were no active hostilities. The ceasefire is now gone. With Iran now firing on a U.S. base where the U.S. keeps thousands of troops, advocates say the war powers argument is stronger than ever.

Where This Lands

Trump's team says Iran will deal when the cost gets high enough; the next test is whether strikes on power plants happen in the days ahead. The bipartisan Senate dissent camp says the costs are already too high for the wrong people — U.S. allies are under fire and American gas prices are up — and the talks need to restart now. The war powers camp says the constitutional question demands an answer regardless of strategy: this is now a four-and-a-half-month-old war, Iran just struck a U.S. host nation, and Congress has not voted. The IRGC's warning of "full-scale operations" within days means the next 72 hours could force all three camps to act.

Sources