Iran's IRGC attacked three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on July 6–7, breaking a memorandum of understanding signed just three weeks earlier under which Iran had agreed to halt such attacks. The U.S. launched strikes on more than 80 Iranian military targets on July 7 and a second round the following day. Iran's IRGC responded by striking 85 U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait and vowed a "crushing response." At the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump declared the ceasefire "over," called Iranian leaders "scum," and said peace talks were "a waste of time."

1. Iran Violated the Deal — the Strikes Were Justified (Trump, CENTCOM)

Iran broke the MoU first; the U.S. strikes were a direct response to Iran's own violations.

Iran's foreign minister told U.S. envoys he couldn't control the IRGC. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reported that Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi said he could not guarantee the IRGC would stop attacking ships — and Trump launched the strikes that same day. Araghchi's admission left no basis for restraint.

The strikes hit military infrastructure, not civilians. CENTCOM said the July 7 targets included Iranian air defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, surface-to-air missiles, antiship cruise missiles, and drone launch sites. Those are the capabilities the IRGC used to attack the Qatari LPG tanker AL REKAYYAT and the Saudi-flagged tanker WEDYAN.

Trump says Iran forfeited the deal. At the NATO summit he said the ceasefire is "over" and that he doesn't want to deal with Iran anymore. He warned of more attacks but did not rule out Witkoff and Kushner continuing to negotiate on the side.

2. But the MoU Was Always Going to Break (Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Gulf States)

The ceasefire collapsed because it never resolved the structural issues that caused the war.

The MoU postponed the core conflicts rather than resolving them. Analysts called it a "deferred crisis" with a built-in detonator. The Islamabad Memorandum got Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief, but left Lebanon entirely unresolved. Iran had made clear one of its core goals was preventing further Israeli strikes on Hezbollah — and the MoU didn't address that at all.

Witkoff and Kushner kept pushing for talks. Both envoys, who led the U.S. side of the negotiations, continued to advocate for continuing the diplomatic process even after Trump declared it over. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other Gulf states echoed that — calling for adherence to the ceasefire and a diplomatic restart, since they don't want the war to resume.

The IRGC was always the structural weak point — Araghchi couldn't guarantee it would comply. His admission wasn't necessarily bad faith. It reflects a real gap in command and control between Iran's civilian government and the IRGC. Any durable deal would need a mechanism to address IRGC compliance, not just FM-level assurances.

3. Still, Iran and Critics Abroad Call This Aggression (Iran's IRGC, Responsible Statecraft, Global South Critics)

Iran and critics outside the West say the U.S. strikes are not enforcement — they are a continuation of a war the U.S. started.

Iran's IRGC says its Hormuz attacks were retaliation, not violations. The U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan on June 22 — weeks before Iran resumed Hormuz attacks. From Iran's position, the July ship attacks were the response to that, not unprovoked aggression.

Critics argue the U.S. was never seriously prepared for peace. Responsible Statecraft's coverage frames the negotiations as reactive, arguing Witkoff and Kushner pushed toward military action rather than a genuine deal. The Arms Control Association called U.S. negotiators "ill-prepared for serious nuclear talks with Iran" and found the framework lopsided — Iran got oil sanctions relief and the Strait reopened upfront, while the hardest questions (nuclear program, missiles, proxies) were deferred.

Iran's hardliners say the renewed strikes prove they were right. Saeed Jalili, Iran's former nuclear negotiator and a longtime hardline political figure, and the Paydari Front opposed any deal from the start and held protests outside the Iranian Foreign Ministry in June. For them, the renewed U.S. strikes confirm that the U.S. never intended a genuine peace — only a pause.

Where This Lands

Trump has declared the ceasefire over, but Witkoff and Kushner are still trying to keep talks alive — and the Gulf states are pushing hard for a diplomatic restart. Oil prices are already rising on fears of full resumption. The enforcement camp says Iran crossed the line and must face consequences. The diplomacy camp says the MoU collapsed because of its own structural flaws — Lebanon unresolved, IRGC compliance unaddressed. The answer, they argue, is better negotiations, not abandonment. Iran and its allies reject the "enforcement" framing entirely. The U.S. struck Iranian nuclear sites weeks before Iran resumed Hormuz attacks, they say — so the IRGC's counter-strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait are self-defense, not aggression.

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