Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles and drones at U.S. military installations across the Gulf early Monday, July 13 — hitting a drone command center and surveillance hangars in Bahrain, missile silos and fuel tanks in Jordan, and a Patriot battery in Kuwait. U.S. Central Command responded overnight with strikes on Iranian air defenses, coastal radar, and missile and drone sites. It is the latest exchange since Iran struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on July 8; Trump formally declared the ceasefire "OVER" on July 10. The Islamabad Memorandum, signed June 17, gave the two sides 60 days to reach a final deal — that window closes around August 16.

1. Hitting Them Is Working (President Trump, SecDef Pete Hegseth)

Trump and Hegseth say military pressure is what's moving Iran toward a deal — not away from one.

Strikes are forcing Iran to negotiate. Trump told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz is open and that Iran has been calling to make a deal after each round of U.S. strikes. He said the ceasefire is over but talks can continue — He argues the bombs and the diplomacy aren't contradictory.

Each new strike degrades Iran's ability to attack shipping in the Strait. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called the approach "negotiate with bombs" and said after the latest CENTCOM strikes: "Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay." CENTCOM frames each wave of strikes as degrading Iran's ability to attack civilian shipping, which it calls the central goal.

The two sides openly disagree on whether the Strait is open. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority says passage is "currently not possible." Trump and CENTCOM say commercial traffic is flowing. The administration's case is that U.S. strikes are keeping the corridor viable despite Iran's claims.

2. But Each New Strike Makes a Deal Harder (Oman FM Badr Albusaidi, VP Vance)

Diplomats say the Islamabad MoU framework is still alive, a transit-fee proposal is already on the table, and the August deadline is close enough to matter.

Diplomats in Muscat are still at the table. Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi has been mediating between Washington and Tehran even as the military exchanges continue. VP Vance said as recently as July 1 that talks were "going well." The ceasefire collapsed; the talks didn't.

A transit-fee deal is already partly written. France and the UK are studying an Oman-drafted proposal that would let Iran collect navigational fees in the Strait under an International Maritime Organization framework — a direct answer to Iran's core demand for Strait revenue. Supporters argue Iran's central ask has a workable answer, and bombs are making it harder to reach.

The Islamabad MoU expires around August 16 — that's 34 days. The 60-day negotiating window signed June 17 closes fast. Diplomats argue that every new military exchange narrows the time and political space for a final deal, and that the August deadline is the only real forcing event left.

3. Congress Already Said Stop This. Trump Didn't. (Sen. Tim Kaine, Sen. Rand Paul, Sen. Lisa Murkowski)

Both chambers passed a war-powers resolution directing Trump to end the conflict. It's legally unenforceable. With U.S. bases now under direct fire, some members say that has to change.

Both chambers voted to stop this war. The House passed a war-powers resolution June 3 (215-208); the Senate passed it June 23 (50-48). It was the first time a war-powers resolution had cleared both chambers since the conflict began. Four Senate Republicans crossed the aisle: Bill Cassidy (LA), Lisa Murkowski (AK), Susan Collins (ME), and Rand Paul (KY).

Trump can ignore the vote, and he has. Legal experts say the resolution carries no legal force and doesn't compel Trump to act. Sen. Tim Kaine called it "an illegal war" and said: "The Constitution says no declaration of war without Congress."

Congress hasn't authorized the war, and 17 Americans have died. Around Day 110, Kaine tallied 17 U.S. service members killed, more than $50 billion spent, and zero authorization votes. With the IRGC now directly hitting U.S. military installations, the bipartisan group that backed the resolution is arguing the symbolic vote needs to become a binding one.

Where This Lands

Trump and Hegseth say strikes are working: Iran calls to make a deal after each round, and CENTCOM reports the Strait is staying open. Diplomats in Oman say the MoU framework is still alive — Oman's transit-fee proposal has French and British interest, and the August 16 deadline could force a deal if the strikes slow down enough for talks to close. Kaine's group already voted to stop this war. Trump ignored it. With the IRGC hitting American bases today, they're pushing to make that vote enforceable.

Sources