The three-and-a-half-week ceasefire between the US and Iran collapsed on July 11. Iran's Revolutionary Guards declared the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice" and attacked the M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus-flagged container ship, setting it on fire and leaving a crew member missing. The US launched its third round of airstrikes against Iran, hitting targets across southern Iran — Bushehr, Asaluyeh, Jask, Bandar Abbas, and Sirik. Trump posted on Truth Social that "1,000 missiles are Locked and Loaded" aimed at Iran, threatening to "completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran" if the regime attempts to assassinate him. Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a Memorandum of Understanding on June 17 that briefly reopened the strait and knocked oil prices off their crisis highs — but neither side could agree on what the deal actually required. Trump called it "over" on Thursday.

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Iran Kept Attacking Ships. The U.S. Had No Choice.

Iran has kept attacking ships throughout the ceasefire. US Central Command said the IRGC "blatantly attacked" the GFS Galaxy after the ship tried to transit the strait, and that Iran had been given repeated chances to comply with the agreement. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said Iran "made a poor choice." Secretary of State Marco Rubio had already rejected Iran's demand to charge tolls on ships transiting the strait. The administration said accepting those tolls would let a foreign government hold the global economy hostage. The assassination threat added a new dimension: US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee confirmed that Israeli intelligence warned Washington of "a very specific plot that was designed to take out President Trump," and the Treasury sanctioned an alleged Iranian financier tied to the plot. The administration says Iran never intended to honor the agreement — it just needed a pause to regroup.

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But Congress Didn't Authorize Another Round of War

Senate Republicans briefly broke with Trump on the Iran war, then folded. On June 23, Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska joined Democrats for a 50–48 war powers vote calling on Trump to withdraw US forces. Trump confronted Republicans at a Capitol lunch the next day. Cassidy said he "lost his temper"; Trump said he raised his voice. The next night, Cassidy voted against the measure and Paul voted present, handing Trump a 47–50–1 reversal. Cassidy had said he supported weakening Iran's nuclear capacity but felt the White House had "left Congress in the dark." US intelligence officials have also told reporters they view Israel's warning about the assassination plot as partly an effort to influence Trump's Iran policy, not just a clean intelligence tip. Democrats are discussing forcing additional war powers votes during the July work period. Another round of strikes — launched by executive order, without congressional authorization — pushes the US closer to an open-ended war that nobody voted for.

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Iran Says the U.S. Violated the Deal First

Iran's new Supreme Leader says vengeance for his father's killing is non-negotiable. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei after the February airstrikes, posted on X: "This vengeance is what our nation is demanding, and this must definitely be done." Iran says the US triggered the collapse: Washington reimposed oil export sanctions, which Tehran says violated the agreement before Iran attacked a single ship. Iran also says it has every right to charge fees for transiting what it considers its controlled waterway — tolls that analysts projected could generate up to $40 billion annually. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman on Saturday for negotiations. Oman is proposing a new Hormuz transit framework. Tehran says the US demands — surrender enriched uranium, publicly declare the strait is open, accept zero fees — are terms designed to humiliate Iran, not reach a deal.

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Where This Lands

Trump and CENTCOM say Iran keeps choosing escalation and the US keeps imposing costs. Three rounds of strikes this week are, in their framing, working exactly as designed: degrade Iran's ability to close the strait, deter assassination, and keep pressure on until Tehran yields. Congressional critics say Trump is running a war without authorization, and that Israel's intelligence may be pushing him toward a confrontation that serves Israeli interests more than American ones. The bipartisan war powers votes are the clearest sign that coalition exists — it just hasn't found a way to stop him. Iran says it won't accept the terms on offer, and that vengeance for Khamenei's death is a political obligation the leadership can't walk back. Araghchi's trip to Oman suggests the door isn't entirely shut. But Mojtaba Khamenei's public vows of vengeance leave Tehran little room to de-escalate without losing face. Brent crude jumped 4.7% on the week to $75.50 a barrel — well below the $126 peak but tracking upward again.

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Sources