China mines about 70% of the world's rare earth elements and processes 91% of them. In April 2025, Beijing imposed export controls on seven heavy rare earth elements. Mountain Pass, California in Montana remains the only significant US rare earth mine. The Trump administration launched Project Vault in February 2026, dedicating $12 billion to establish a strategic stockpile and accelerate domestic processing. New mines in Wyoming and Alaska could add capacity, though most face 7-10 year permitting timelines.
1. General Panic (National Security Hawks, Pentagon Assistant Secretary Michael P. Cadenazzi Jr.)
Rare earths power every strategic weapon system we have. Losing access is losing deterrence.
Each F-35 requires 418 kg of rare earth elements. Virginia-class submarines need roughly 4,000 kg per unit. More than 70% of US rare earth imports come from China. When Beijing imposed export controls, they weren't targeting consumer electronics — they were targeting elements that allow high-temperature performance in military systems.
Project Vault correctly identifies the enemy, but it's slow to the fight. Twelve billion dollars is real. But capital doesn't compress time. USA Rare Earth's Round Top deposit won't reach commercial production until late 2028. The US still lacks significant separation capacity. China separates millions of tons per year. If China decides to embargo us, we have perhaps 90 days of strategic reserve.
2. We Need Allies Now, Mining Later (Trade Pragmatists, Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze)
Mining timelines are too long. Stabilize non-Chinese supply through partnership and imports.
The permitting timeline for a new US mine is 7-10 years minimum. Molycorp invested $1.7 billion and went bankrupt. Lynas in Australia became the first non-Chinese producer of separated heavy rare earths — and it took two decades and billions of dollars. The constraint isn't ore. It's people who know how to separate it.
Friendly-shored supply chains are mature and deliverable. Lynas supplies US defense contractors today. Japan subsidizes rare earth investments in Australia. The EU is doing the same. If the US negotiates joint supply agreements, we can guarantee supply outside China in 18 months, not 8 years. Processing is the actual bottleneck, and that cannot be solved by mining.
3. Just Deal With China (RAND Corporation's Francesca Ghiretti, Economists)
Mining and processing take decades. Meanwhile, China has leverage, and leverage gets used.
China perfected rare earth separation when everyone else gave up. In the 1980s, the US dominated production. Then environmental regulations made mining expensive and China built massive capacity. By the time we realized we'd outsourced a critical supply, China had 40 years of expertise. You cannot replicate this by throwing capital at it.
The smartest move is engagement, not confrontation. When Beijing restricted exports in April 2025, prices spiked globally. We're seeing elevated prices persist. Project Vault is correct about stockpiles. Friendly-shoring is correct about alternatives. But the fastest path to rare earth security is negotiating with China. Economics usually beat ideology. Right now, we're making economics lose by imposing tariffs and signaling that supply diversity is political.
Where This Lands
China processes 91% of the world's rare earth elements. The Pentagon needs them for every strategic system. Project Vault commits $12 billion but new mines face 7-10 year timelines. Lynas and emerging facilities in Canada could diversify supply in 3-5 years. The real constraint is processing capacity, not mining. Friendly-shored processing through allies is the near-term solution, domestic mining is the long-term play, and engagement with China is the only thing that stabilizes prices in the meantime.