Trump's calling for an international coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz — China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the U.K. The pitch: U.S. military muscle will deter Iran, allied warships will help out, and a $20 billion federal insurance program will persuade shippers to risk it. So far, no country has publicly agreed to send warships. And even inside the administration, there seems to be a gap between Trump's confidence and what the Pentagon actually thinks.
1. We'll Reopen It (Hegseth, Bessent)
The administration is betting everything on sheer force and money.
Sheer force will win the day. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Friday that shipping through the strait isn't a major worry — the U.S. Navy is already managing the situation. "We have been dealing with it, and don't need to worry about it," he said. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was more cautious but still optimistic, saying the U.S. and possibly an international coalition would start escorting ships "as soon as militarily possible."
The Trump administration also unveiled a $20 billion insurance backstop. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation will insure tanker losses up to $20 billion on a rolling basis, with Chubb as the lead underwriter. The logic is that if shippers know their cargoes are insured, they'll venture through the chokepoint. It's a straightforward gamble: money changes risk calculations.
2. C'mon Man, No Country Has Said Yes (Japan, UK, France)
Allied nations are publicly dodging Trump's request, citing political risk and preferring a negotiated end to the war.
Every other country is hedging, hemming, and hawing. Japanese lawmakers told reporters that they haven't ruled out the possibility, but given the active conflict, such a mission would require extreme caution. The U.K. was similarly evasive. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband told Sky News that ending the war is the "best and surest" way to reopen the strait. France declined outright. The message is plain: no country has so far publicly agreed to Trump's call to send warships.
The reluctance signals real political costs for allies. Committing warships to contested waters where Iran is actively attacking... well, that risks casualties and escalation. For countries like Japan and the U.K., which depend on Middle East oil but aren't at war with Iran, joining a U.S. coalition is a calculation of sovereignty and domestic opinion.
3. And There Are Still Real Risks (Shipping Industry, Military Analysts)
Even if the U.S. could field enough destroyers, shipping companies care about physical safety, not insurance. And the $20 billion program doesn't cover the real problem.
Insurance isn't the primary constraint. Physical security is. Shipping analysts were blunt about it: tankers aren't moving because ship owners are worried about getting hit, not because they can't find a policy. Hapag-Lloyd, the German shipping giant, has six container vessels anchored in the Persian Gulf and is assessing the situation hour by hour. The company says the risk to unarmed civilian crews is too high, no matter what the paperwork says.
And anyway, Trump's $20 billion insurance program only covers 22 miles of sea lanes inside the Strait itself — not the surrounding waters where much of the threat lives. It also offers no casualty or environmental coverage. For an industry that just watched war risk premiums spike from 0.125% to between 0.2% and 0.4% per transit (and as high as 1,000% in some cases), an insurance policy that covers a fraction of the route and excludes crew deaths feels insufficient.
Military analysts are also skeptical that escorts alone can do the job. The Strait's shipping lanes are only 2 nautical miles wide each direction. Vessels transit at 10-12 knots. A U.S. destroyer can intercept missiles, but it can't simultaneously sweep for mines, defend against drone-boat swarms coming from multiple angles, and manage GPS disruption.
Historical precedent is also sobering. During Operation Earnest Will in 1987-1988, the U.S. reflagged Kuwaiti tankers and protected them during the Iran-Iraq Tanker War. That operation consumed 30 U.S. Navy ships at peak. And on the very first escort mission, a reflagged tanker struck an Iranian mine in the Gulf. Today, Iran has an estimated 5,000--6,000 naval mines, anti-ship missiles, one-way attack drones, and drone swarms.
Where This Lands
Trump's bet rests on deterrence and logistics — that U.S. military power plus insurance will crack Iran's blockade. Hegseth and Bessent are confident the Navy can handle it, or at least that showing up will signal strength. Allies are diplomatically dodging the request because they see the risk-reward as unfavorable. And even if all that were somehow solved, the shipping industry is signaling that insurance and military escorts address the wrong problem. The result will depend on whether U.S. military dominance can substitute for the most obvious fix: a sustained change in Iran's behavior.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-asks-china-france-help-keep-strait-of-hormuz-open-amid-war-iran/
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/13/iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-hegseth.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/trump-navy-strait-hormuz-iran-oil-tanker.html
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/03/15/japan/politics/trump-hormuz-strait-japan-takaichi/
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/trump-reinsurance-oil-iran-war.html
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2026/03/09/860972.htm
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/iran-israel-war-strait-hormuz-shipping-oil-insurance.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Earnest_Will
https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history/2025/june/tanker-war
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/12/iran-war-strait-hormuz-ships-mines-missiles-drones/
https://www.cfr.org/articles/iran-vows-to-keep-fighting
https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-worry-strait-hormuz-us-time-counter-irans/story?id=131036790