Almost two weeks ago, the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes across Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other Iranian officials. The administration expected a repeat of the June 2025 Twelve-Day War -- quick strikes, limited retaliation, oil prices that "blipped up and then went back down," as Energy Secretary Chris Wright put it on February 18.

That is not what happened. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes on US bases and cities across a dozen countries, forced the Strait of Hormuz closed, and brought global shipping to a standstill. Oil spiked from under $70 a barrel to nearly $120. Gas is up 17%. The Pentagon burned through $5.6 billion in munitions in the first two days. Eight American service members are dead and about 140 wounded. Mojtaba Khamenei -- believed to be more hardline than his father -- is the new supreme leader.

A National Intelligence Council assessment completed before the war concluded that military intervention was not likely to lead to regime change, even if the leadership was killed.

1. This Had to Be Done (Niall Ferguson, FDD, Naftali Bennett, Israeli Public)

The regime was in its last chance saloon. Somebody finally called time on it.

Iran has been waging war against Americans for half a century. This was the reckoning. Niall Ferguson pointed out on The Free Press that Iran was the principal sponsor of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad when they carried out the October 7, 2023 attacks, and has been responsible for American deaths in every decade since 1979. The Washington Post wrote in an Op-Ed that America argued the military action is justified by Iran's choices. This is not Iraq 2003 -- it is a preemptive act to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and missiles.

The regime lost what legitimacy it had when it slaughtered its own people. In January 2026, the largest protests since the Islamic Revolution swept Iran. Security forces killed thousands of protesters, maybe even tens of thousands. Any shred of illegitimacy is now gone. We must take as long as is necessary to neutralize Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.

Israel is overwhelmingly behind this. An Israel Democracy Institute poll found 82% total support for Operation Roaring Lion -- 93% among Jewish Israelis, with even the Israeli left at 76%. Fifty-seven percent of Jewish Israelis want the war to continue until the regime is overthrown.

The NIC report was wrong and couldn't be trusted. FDD's Richard Goldberg dismissed the pre-war intelligence assessment as "almost like an op-ed from the intelligence community," and pointed out the intelligence community's recent misses on Afghanistan and Ukraine.

2. We're Worse Off Now (NYT, Sen. Chris Murphy, Richard Haass)

They planned the decapitation. They didn't plan for the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump and his advisers misjudged how Iran would respond to this existential conflict Tehran. The NYT reported that some military advisers warned before the war that Iran would launch an aggressive campaign, viewing the attack as a threat to its existence. And the NIC assessment said no unified opposition was poised to take over. Now, Iran's clerics have installed Mojtaba Khamenei, who is more hardline than his father.

America should have known -- or planned -- better. After a classified Senate briefing, Chris Murphy said the admin had "NO PLAN" for the Strait of Hormuz and called it "unforgivable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable." Murphy predicted the US would get a bunch of Americans killed, spend hundreds of billions of taxpayer money, and face a hard(er)line regime. Defense Secretary Hegseth acknowledged that Iran's response "caught the Pentagon somewhat off guard."

The war's goals keep shifting. Hegseth said this is "not a so-called regime change war." But Trump said he wanted regime change. Sen. Mark Warner said the goals changed "four or five times" -- from nuclear capacity to ballistic missiles to regime change to sinking the fleet. On Monday, Rubio laid out three discrete objectives -- destroy missile capability, destroy missile factories, destroy the navy -- which appeared to be setting the stage for a near-term exit. But Trump himself suggested he could pursue more ambitious goals that would take weeks.

3. Americans Are Already Paying the Price (Quinnipiac, CBS, Fortune)

More than half oppose it. Gas is up 17%. And the Pentagon is spending a billion dollars a day.

A majority of Americans oppose the war. The Quinnipiac poll found 53% oppose US military action, with only 40% in support. CNN's snap poll showed 59% disapproval. Fifty-five percent said Iran did not pose an "imminent military threat" before the strikes. About 6 in 10 adults trust Trump "not much" or "not at all" to make the right decisions on use of force. Even among Republicans, 52% oppose sending ground troops.

Gas prices are surging and wiping out the benefits of Trump's tax cuts. Gas hit $3.54 a gallon on Tuesday, up 17% since the war began. If oil stays near $100 a barrel, gas will close in on $4 within a week. That extra cost would wipe out the benefit of higher tax refunds from Trump's 2025 tax cuts for most Americans, with only the top 30% still seeing a net gain. The war costs an estimated $1 billion a day.

The Chris Wright episode is emblematic of the chaos. On Tuesday, Wright posted on social media that the Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, driving up stocks. He then deleted the post after officials said no escorts had taken place, throwing markets into turmoil. Meanwhile, intelligence indicated Iran was preparing to lay mines in the strait, and the US military attacked 16 Iranian minelaying vessels. Oof.

Where This Lands

It's likely Day 13 is nothing like the administration expected. The June 2025 blueprint -- limited strikes, quick ceasefire -- was built for a different war. The decision to assassinate Khamenei turned a containable conflict into one Tehran treats as existential. The regime did not collapse. It promoted a harder man. On the other hand, there are many -- across the political spectrum -- who believe that war with Iran was justified. Where this lands depends on whether the next few weeks produce the collapse the administration bet on, or whether a harder Iran and $4 gas become the new normal.

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