President Trump told the UN General Assembly on September 22 that he faces a choice on Iran: "annihilate" the country and "drive them into hell," or make a deal. He said the deal will likely come "right after the election," since Tehran is "waiting to see how I do in the midterm election." Hours later, Trump told reporters his envoys had just spent three hours in direct talks with Iranian officials in New York. It was the first face-to-face meeting between the two sides since June. He called it "very good" and "very productive" and said another meeting is coming. Israeli strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, starting the war. It was on its 207th day.

1. Trump Is Threatening Iran and Negotiating With It at the Same Time (President Trump)

Trump's team is using the threat and the talks as one strategy.

He's using the annihilation threat to set a deadline. Trump framed the choice as total destruction or a rebuilt Iran. The same day, he sat his envoys down with Tehran's.

Trump is timing this to the midterms. He said he expects Iran to hold out until he shows his political strength at the ballot box in November, then cut a deal "because it doesn't make sense for them not to."

The stated goal hasn't changed. Trump said the point of all of it is still to make sure "Iran will never have a nuclear weapon."

2. Iran's Diplomats Are at the Table, But They Say They're Done Trusting for Free (Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, President Masoud Pezeshkian)

Iran's civilian government is negotiating, but says it's done taking anything on faith.

Araghchi showed up, but said he doesn't trust the room. He met US envoy Steve Witkoff for the New York talks. Afterward, he said Iran has "no trust" in the UN "in its present form." He pointed to what he called Western inaction on Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon. And he accused the US of "repeated breach of agreements."

Pezeshkian says Iran is holding its ground. He said his delegation would "convey Iran's plight to the international community" and that "despite all the unfairness and injustices, the Iranian people have stood their ground."

The asking price went up. Iran's demands: lift the Hormuz naval blockade immediately. Release the roughly $24 billion in frozen assets upfront instead of in stages. End the war on every front, including Lebanon. And — newly added — lift Saudi Arabia's blockade on Houthi-held Yemen. A US official in the room said the gaps are still wide.

3. The IRGC Says There's Nothing to Talk About (IRGC Spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi)

Iran's military wing isn't recognizing the same negotiation its own foreign ministry just sat down for.

Mohebbi rejected the outreach outright. He said this the same day Araghchi was in the room with Witkoff: "The Americans have tried to contact us, but we refuse any such contact. Our dealings with the enemy... are conducted solely through arms."

The IRGC was already promising more war before Trump even spoke. A day earlier, Trump told Fox News he was weighing "wiping Iran out." The IRGC responded that any new US assault would expand the conflict "to new areas" with different "weaponry and geography."

They're not buying the threat as credible. This week, the IRGC has dismissed Trump's threats as bluster — he's made them before and never followed through.

4. Congress's War-Powers Bloc Says the Threat Proves Their Point (Reps. Thomas Massie, Seth Moulton; Speaker Mike Johnson)

A small but growing group in the House says Congress never authorized this war, so it should end, no matter how big the threat gets.

The House has voted three times to end this. On September 15, the House passed a resolution, 220-204, calling for the war to stop without congressional authorization. Massie and six other Republicans crossed over to vote for it, up from four on the prior vote.

Massie tried to go further, and got shut down. He filed impeachment articles against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over War Powers Resolution violations. Speaker Johnson blocked a vote on them by recessing the House early, calling the effort "a publicity stunt by someone who wants attention... it's a stunt."

Johnson says the restrictions are the real risk. He argued Congress "should not be playing games with national security" in the middle of "international conflicts."

Moulton says there's still no plan. Moulton, a Marine combat veteran, has argued the war lacks the strategy and congressional buy-in that even the Iraq War had: "None of that exists today."

Where This Lands

Trump is running annihilation and negotiation as one strategy, betting Iran folds once the midterms are over. Iran's foreign ministry is negotiating anyway, but after seven months of war, it's demanding more than before. Its own military says there's no negotiation to have while the threat stands. And a small bipartisan bloc in Congress says none of it should be happening without their sign-off in the first place.

Sources