A three-person council is running Iran right now: President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and Guardian Council cleric Alireza Arafi. The Assembly of Experts — 88 senior clerics — will select the next supreme leader by simple majority. The constitution says they must act "in the shortest possible time." Foreign Minister Araghchi suggested it could happen within "one or two days." Khamenei had nominated three preferred successors before his death: Mohseni Ejei, his deputy chief of staff Asghar Hejazi, and Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the revolution's founder. Meanwhile, Iranians are dancing in the streets of Isfahan and Shiraz, Trump says the war will last "four weeks or less," one exile group has declared a provisional government, and the exiled Crown Prince is positioning himself as a transitional leader.

1. Pick a Strongman and Hold the Line (IRGC, Hardliners)

The revolution survives this. The Guards will make sure of it.

The IRGC will be the ultimate kingmaker. Their fortunes are "intimately tied to the regime" — whoever becomes supreme leader must protect their financial and military interests. The Guards and Basij have "the means as well as the ideological and economic interests to defend the regime from falling."

Mohseni Ejei is the continuity pick. Already on the interim council, one of Khamenei's three nominated successors, intelligence minister from 2005 to 2009, judiciary chief since 2021. The EU sanctioned him in 2011 for "serious human rights violations." He's known for ruthless suppression of the 2022-24 and 2026 protests. He is the regime as it exists.

Mojtaba Khamenei is the dynasty play. The late supreme leader's second son, 56, wields immense behind-the-scenes influence through deep ties to the IRGC and Basij. But he's never held government office, lacks senior religious credentials, and his own father opposed the idea — telling aides he "did not want to witness a return to hereditary rule." Reports from mid-2025 said the Assembly of Experts excluded him from a confidential shortlist, though other sources say he's still in contention.

2. Save the Republic by Softening It (Reformists, Moderates)

Pick Hassan Khomeini. Preserve the system but open the door before the people kick it down.

Hassan Khomeini could be the bridge candidate. The grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini — founder of the Islamic Republic — he's known to be "less hard-line than his peers." Al-Monitor reports that elevating him "might help preserve the core structure of the Islamic Republic, ease Iran's international isolation, and address popular dissatisfaction at home."

But he has almost no institutional power. He was barred from running for the Assembly of Experts in 2016 because of his reformist ties. He hasn't held public office and has little influence with the security apparatus. He's the custodian of his grandfather's mausoleum — a powerful symbol, but not a power base.

The reformist argument is pragmatic, not idealistic. If the regime picks another hardliner, it invites the same cycle of repression and revolt that just produced the largest uprising since 1979 — protests in over 100 cities, with an estimated 2,000 to 40,000 killed. A moderate leader could release pressure without dismantling the system.

3. End the Islamic Republic (Diaspora, Protesters, Pahlavi, NCRI)

The supreme leader position itself is the problem. Scrap it.

Reza Pahlavi is positioning himself as the transitional leader. The exiled Crown Prince called the strikes a "humanitarian intervention" and urged Iranians to prepare to return to the streets. He says the next political system — parliamentary monarchy or republic — must be determined by a free referendum. He will not seek restoration of the monarchy.

Maryam Rajavi's NCRI declared a "Provisional Government" on Feb 28 — based on a Ten-Point Plan for a secular, democratic, non-nuclear republic with free elections within six months. The NCRI/MEK is controversial: it was designated a terrorist organization by the US until 2012 and by the EU until 2009.

The people want revolution. Unlike past protests that focused on elections or economic relief, the 2025-26 movement demands wholesale system change. Slogans glorify pre-1979 Iran and denounce the Supreme Leader. As Iran confirmed Khamenei's death, celebrations erupted across Isfahan, Karaj, Kermanshah, Qazvin, Sanandaj, Shiraz, and Izeh — the opposite of the regime's mandated 40 days of mourning. Diaspora rallies drew 250,000 in Munich, 350,000 each in Toronto and Los Angeles.

Where This Lands

The Assembly of Experts could name a successor within days. The IRGC wants a strongman who protects their empire. Reformists want Khomeini's grandson to buy time. And millions of Iranians — inside the country and in the diaspora — want to abolish the position entirely. Trump says the war will last four weeks and has offered three paths: amnesty for those who lay down arms, engagement with "new leadership," or popular uprising.

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