President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on July 4, 2025. A year later, the law has done what its supporters promised — and what its critics warned. It permanently cut taxes for tens of millions of Americans and ended food and health benefits for millions of others. It also added $3.4 trillion to the national debt by independent count. The 2026 midterms are four months away, and both parties are running on the same law — just different parts of it.

1. The Tax Cuts Are Real (Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)

Republicans say the numbers show the law delivered.

Tens of millions of workers and seniors got concrete relief. Seven million tipped workers claimed the new no-tax-on-tips deduction, averaging $7,000 each. Twenty-eight million workers claimed the overtime deduction, averaging $3,100. Thirty-four million seniors claimed the new $6,000 bonus deduction. Speaker Mike Johnson said at the anniversary: "American paychecks are bigger, their taxes are permanently lower, and the border is secure."

Even the CBO confirmed an economic boost. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the law raised real GDP by 0.9% in 2026. The White House Council of Economic Advisers projects growth around 4% annually through 2028, factoring in deregulation and energy policy. The Council also says the U.S. would have 6.1 million fewer full-time jobs if the law hadn't passed.

Federal Medicaid spending is going up in dollar terms, Republicans say. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. disputes the "cuts" framing: spending rises from $668 billion in 2025 to $981 billion in 2036. Federal spending on Medicaid actually goes up — just slower than it would have without the law.

2. But So Are the 4 Million Who Lost Food Benefits (Rep. Pete Aguilar, Rep. Frank Pallone, Center for American Progress)

Democrats say the damage is concrete, documented, and large.

More than 4 million people lost food assistance. SNAP participation dropped 10% — over 4 million people — between July 2025 and March 2026. Arizona is down 53%. Florida is down 17%. More than 700,000 children lost benefits across 12 states. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York flagged a "remarkable increase in food insecurity." California Food Banks is serving 6 million people per month — more than at the height of the COVID pandemic.

Health insurance got more expensive and harder to get. ACA marketplace premiums rose 58% — from $113/month to $178/month — in a single year. Deductibles jumped 37% to $3,786. Enrollment fell by 1.2 million people, the largest single-year drop since the ACA marketplace opened in 2014. Rep. Frank Pallone, Democrat of New Jersey, called it directly: "Fewer people are insured, premiums are skyrocketing, and deductibles are higher."

The tax cuts tilted toward the top. The top 1% will receive $1 trillion in tax cuts over the decade, according to Jon Whiten, a researcher at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla together took $51 billion in tax breaks in 2025 alone. Low-income earners under $15,000 a year actually face tax increases under the law. Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, Democrat of California, put it plainly: the bill "made life harder for the working class, while the rich get even richer."

3. And Nobody's Running on the $3.4 Trillion in New Debt (Maya MacGuineas, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)

Fiscal watchdogs say both parties are ignoring the number that outlasts the midterms.

Economic growth doesn't cover the cost. CBO's full dynamic analysis found the law increases deficits by $3.4 trillion through 2034. Growth generates $124 billion in new revenue. Interest costs from the higher debt add $517 billion — four times the revenue gain. No independent model, including CBO, Penn Wharton, the Tax Foundation, or Yale's Budget Lab, supports the White House's claim that growth offsets the bill's fiscal cost.

The annual deficit is now nearly $2 trillion — and rising. Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said when the final score came in: "It's still hard to believe that policymakers just added $4 trillion to the debt." MacGuineas has warned the country is now headed toward $3 trillion in annual borrowing within a decade. The 10-year Treasury yield is 14 basis points higher because of the law — a direct, ongoing cost to every borrower in the country.

More than 300 rural hospitals are at immediate risk of closure. The law included a $50 billion Rural Health Transformation fund over five years to cushion the Medicaid cuts. States received the first $10 billion in 2026. Whether it's enough will become clear in 2027, when work requirements fully kick in. Enrollment projections suggest 5 to 10 million people could lose coverage that year.

Where This Lands

Republicans are marking the anniversary with more than 100 promotional events, spotlighting the tips and overtime deductions. Democrats are betting the ACA premium spike and the 4 million SNAP losses give them the House. Both have real numbers. Neither is running on the $3.4 trillion in new debt — and that interest bill compounds whether anyone campaigns on it or not.

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