CPAC 2026 ran March 25-28 in Dallas — one month into the Iran war. Trump skipped for the first time since 2016, attending a Saudi investment conference instead. Vance and Tucker Carlson were also absent. The conference laid bare a genuine divide in MAGA leadership — many high-profile speakers railed against the war in Iran.

1. America First Means No War (Matt Gaetz, Steve Bannon, Erik Prince, Young Attendees)

The Iran war betrays the promise that got Trump elected. This was supposed to be America first, not Israel first.

A ground invasion of Iran betrays everything Trump promised in 2016. That's what Matt Gaetz told the CPAC stage — higher gas prices, higher food prices, more terrorists created than killed. For the non-interventionist wing, this war is the opposite of America First. It's the kind of open-ended Middle Eastern adventure Trump built his brand on rejecting.

The war isn't winding down — it's barely started. Bannon spoke from a session labeled "Peace Room" and warned that American troops could end up on Kharg Island or holding a beachhead at the Strait of Hormuz. Erik Prince, the Blackwater founder, said he doesn't share the administration's optimism about a peaceful resolution and predicted images of burning American warships within weeks.

Young conservatives are incredibly disappointed. Joseph Bolick, a 30-year-old Army and Marine Corps veteran who's voted Trump since 2016, said he feels betrayed. A 26-year-old attendee put it more sharply: "This is definitely not what I was voting for when I voted Trump. This was supposed to be America first, not Israel first." Young conservatives are staying home from CPAC over Iran — and that's new.

2. Actually, We Should Make Iran Great Again (Reza Pahlavi, Pro-Intervention Hawks)

This isn't just a war — it's a once-in-a-generation chance to replace the Islamic Republic with a democratic ally.

CPAC's loudest applause wasn't for Trump — it was for regime change in Iran. Exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi pledged to "make Iran great again," got chants of "Javid Shah" (long live the king), and argued a strategic U.S.-Iran partnership could generate more than $1 trillion for the American economy over a decade. For the pro-war wing, this isn't a departure from America First — it's the completion of it.

The regime change pitch has a seductive economic logic. Pahlavi described Iran's population as highly educated, entrepreneurial, and pro-democracy. He framed the war as liberation, tying it to America's 250th birthday. The hawks bought it. The question is whether the rest of the party does.

3. Everyone Relax — The Party Holds, For Now (GOP Polling, NPR Analysis)

Seventy-one percent of Republicans support the strikes. Rifts are real, but Trump is still the glue.

The numbers still favor Trump among Republicans. Pew Research found 71% of Republicans say the U.S. made the right decision in striking Iran, and roughly 7 in 10 approve of Trump's handling of the conflict. NPR's takeaway from the conference: "Rifts over Iran, but unity for Trump."

But everyone has to admit that the age breakdown is a warning sign. Support drops from 84% among Republicans 65 and older to 49% among Republicans 18-29 — the same young voters Trump made historic gains with in 2024. Young CPAC attendees predicted the GOP would "get destroyed" in the midterms. The party holds today. Whether it holds through November is the question no one at CPAC could answer.

Where This Lands

The Iran war is splitting Trump's coalition along generational and ideological lines. Seventy-one percent of Republicans still back the strikes, and Pahlavi's standing ovation shows the pro-war argument sells when you frame it as liberation. But only half of Republicans under 30 agree, and those are the voters Trump made historic gains with in 2024. The party holds today. Whether it holds through November is the question nobody at CPAC could answer.

Sources