The EU's 21st Russia sanctions package failed to pass after three days of talks collapsed earlier this week. The package targets roughly 250 Russian individuals and entities, plus the LNG tankers and shadow fleet Russia uses to move oil and gas around existing restrictions. Any holdout kills it — and right now there are two. EU HR Kaja Kallas confirmed on July 13: no deal. Talks resume before July 23. That's when the oil price cap on Russian crude auto-resets to a higher level — oil prices have risen with the Iran war — and Russia collects more per barrel without doing a thing. The EU already made one concession: it dropped Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil co-founder Vagit Alekperov at Bulgaria's insistence. Bulgarian Foreign Minister Velislava Petrova said Bulgaria is now ready to sign. It wasn't enough.

1. The Hawkish Bloc (Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, EU HR Kaja Kallas)

Latvia says the holdouts are choosing their own money over the war — and it's saying that out loud.

The holdouts are each making money from Russia while Latvia pays nothing. Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs went to reporters on July 17 and said plainly that some EU countries "are making a lot of money thanks to Russia, while Latvia earns nothing, which is a shame." He asked whether EU members would rather make money or have peace, adding that both are impossible at the same time. Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland hold the most hawkish position — they share a border or a history with Russia, they earn nothing from Russian commerce, and they argue that every delay directly benefits Moscow.

Missing the July 23 deadline hands Moscow money. The oil price cap is frozen at $44.10 per barrel through July 23. If the EU doesn't reach a deal before then, the cap auto-resets higher because global oil prices have climbed with the Iran war. Russia earns more per barrel without doing anything. The Baltic camp says letting the deadline pass isn't caution — it hands Moscow money that EU disunity is paying for.

2. Greece (Greek Officials, Dynagas Shipping)

Greece says it doesn't import Russian gas, so it shouldn't lose its shipping industry for moving it.

The LNG restriction would destroy one of Greece's major shipping companies. The package includes a ban on transporting Russian LNG to third countries. Greek officials warned this would effectively destroy Dynagas, a major Arctic LNG carrier linked to Greek shipping magnate George Prokopiou, by blocking its ships from moving Russian gas to Asian buyers. Greece doesn't import Russian LNG for its own domestic energy use — its ships are operating commercial shipping lanes that carry a Russian product to non-EU destinations.

Greece wants a carve-out, not an end to sanctions. Athens asked for an exemption allowing Greek ships to continue transporting Russian LNG to non-EU clients while the rest of the package goes forward. Greece runs a legitimate commercial shipping sector, not a sanctions-evasion operation — and dismantling it won't close a loophole Russia can route through other carriers anyway.

3. Austria (Austrian Officials, Raiffeisen Bank International)

Austria says sanctioning its bank right now locks it inside Russia permanently.

The EU is targeting the last Western bank still inside Russia. Raiffeisen Bank International has been trying to exit Russia but can't do it cleanly. Russia has seized assets the bank would lose if it pulls out without a negotiated deal. Austria argues that sanctioning RBI now would make that exit impossible, trapping Europe's exposure inside Moscow indefinitely.

Austria's counter-proposal flips the sanctioning logic. Rather than blacklisting RBI, Austria pushed the EU to instead lift existing sanctions on Rasperia Trading Limited — a Russian entity linked to RBI — which would give the bank a cleaner path out. Austria isn't objecting to consequences for Russia. It's saying: sanctioning RBI before the bank can exit punishes Austria more than Moscow.

Where This Lands

The hawkish bloc — Latvia, the Baltics, Poland, and Kallas — argues that a package already watered down to drop Patriarch Kirill and Alekperov should be enough for any remaining holdouts to sign, and that every day without a deal is a day Russia earns more from oil. Greece says the LNG shipping ban misidentifies a legitimate commercial industry as a sanctions target. Austria says it won't agree to lock its own bank inside Russia without a workable exit first. Both holdouts want specific carve-outs before signing — and the two requests don't overlap, so there's no single deal that satisfies both. July 23 is the clock.

Sources