On Tuesday, Texas Republicans voted in a Senate runoff. The choice: John Cornyn, the state's senior senator since 2002, against Ken Paxton, the attorney general his own party impeached in 2023. Neither cleared 50% in March, and the race drew more than $135 million in ads. A week out, Trump endorsed Paxton, who went into Election Day the favorite. The winner faces Democrat James Talarico.

1. Dump the Squish (Paxton, the base, Trump)

Cornyn had 24 years to fight and didn't. Paxton actually does.

A two-decade incumbent who lost the base is exactly who the base wants gone. To Paxton's supporters, Cornyn is a Washington fixture who drifted from Trump, while Paxton built his name as the attorney general who sued the Biden administration at every turn.

Trump settled it. His endorsement a week before the runoff flipped the race -- prediction markets swung from a real contest to all but decided for Paxton almost overnight.

2. Paxton Blows a Safe Seat (Cornyn + national Republicans)

You don't hand a Texas Senate seat to a man your own party put on trial.

Paxton is the rare Republican who could actually lose in Texas. His own party's House impeached him on 20 articles in 2023. Then there's a nine-year securities-fraud case that ended in a 2024 deal, an FBI investigation, and a wife who filed for divorce alleging adultery.

That's why party leaders wanted Cornyn. They see a proven statewide winner against a candidate they fear is too damaged to survive a general election -- weak with the moderates and independents who actually decide them.

3. Bring On Paxton (Talarico + Democrats)

A scandal magnet at the top of the ticket is the best gift Texas Democrats have had in years.

Democrats aren't hiding it: they want to run against Paxton. A scarred nominee hands them their best shot at a Texas Senate seat in a generation.

The polls explain the glee. James Talarico, an Austin state rep and former teacher, led Paxton by 8 points in one April survey and by 5 in another -- numbers Texas Democrats almost never see.

Where This Lands

Texas Republicans had a choice between a senator they've cooled on and an attorney general their own party once tried to remove -- and Trump put his weight behind the second one. The base's logic is loyalty and fight; the establishment's is arithmetic, because a Republican polling behind a Democrat in Texas is a problem the party almost never has to think about. Democrats, for once, are rooting for the Republican. If Paxton is the nominee, the GOP will spend the summer finding out if it just traded a safe seat for a loyal one -- in a state it cannot afford to actually lose.

Sources