Putin arrived in Beijing on May 19 for a two-day summit with Xi Jinping — his 25th visit to China as president, and pointedly just days after Trump's own Beijing summit on May 13-15. The two signed a joint statement on deepening their "comprehensive strategic partnership" and a reported 40 agreements, timed to the 25th anniversary of the 2001 Friendship Treaty. Energy was the centerpiece: the long-stalled Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, on which the two sides still have not agreed a price. Putin called the relationship a "stabilising" force; Xi has called him his "best friend."

1. China Is Bankrolling the War (NATO, Kaja Kallas)

Whatever you label the relationship, its function is to keep Russia's war economy running.

Cheap oil and exports are the war's fuel supply. NATO's Washington Summit Declaration called China a "decisive enabler of Russia's war against Ukraine," citing "large-scale support for Russia's defense industrial base." Russian oil exports to China jumped 35% in the first quarter of 2026, and 90% of Russia's crude now goes to China and India. The Iran war and the blocked Strait of Hormuz only deepened China's appetite for discounted Russian barrels.

2. This Is a Real Axis (Kendall-Taylor and Fontaine, Bonny Lin)

The deepening is structural, not cosmetic. Four dissatisfied powers are acting in concert.

A joint statement plus submarine technology plus coordinated UN vetoes is more than a friendship. Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine of CNAS coined the "Axis of Upheaval" to describe the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea convergence, with the Russia-China relationship at its center of gravity. Bonny Lin at CSIS documents the hard cooperation underneath the rhetoric: Russia is reportedly helping quiet China's Type 096 nuclear submarine, a direct upgrade to Chinese military capability. On April 7, China and Russia jointly vetoed a UN Security Council draft on escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

The de-dollarization will have a lasting impact Putin said almost all Russia-China trade now runs in their own currencies, framing it as a system insulated from the influence of third countries — which is to say, from US sanctions. Both analysts add the honest caveat that this is a convergence of interests, not a treaty alliance with mutual-defense obligations. But a bloc that trades outside the dollar, shares weapons technology, and votes together at the UN is the most coherent challenge to the US-led order since the Cold War.

3. China Owns Russia Now (Alexander Gabuev, Yun Sun)

This is not a partnership of equals. It is a takeover, and the gas price proves it.

The junior partner doesn't set the terms, and Russia is seriously junior here. China is Russia's largest trading partner; Russia is only about 4% of China's trade. The clearest tell is the pipeline both leaders keep almost-announcing: China wants gas at its domestic rate near $120 per thousand cubic meters, Russia wants European-style indexing near $265, and after years of talks Power of Siberia 2 still has no agreed price. Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center: "Russia is fully in China's pocket, and China can dictate the terms."

The war turned Russia into a discounted vendor with one real customer. Yun Sun at the Stimson Center has long framed the relationship as a "marriage of convenience" — and convenience runs one direction when your buyer knows you have nowhere else to sell. Even the trade story is softer than the official line: bilateral trade hit a record $245 billion in 2024 but fell in 2025, with China trimming Russian oil, coal, and LNG purchases. Russia is selling more crude at a worse price to a partner that can wait.

Where This Lands

The three readings are not mutually exclusive, which is what makes the relationship hard to counter. The hawks are right that China's market and factories keep Russia's war funded. The axis theorists are right that the de-dollarized trade, the weapons tech, and the UN coordination are real and durable. And the skeptics are right that the pipeline price standoff exposes who actually holds leverage. China is the one capital that gets visited by both sides of the new cold war, and sets the terms with each.

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