Italy announced on April 24 it would deploy 4 ships, including 2 minesweepers, to the Strait of Hormuz, with the UK, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands joining the coalition. Iran has not consented to the operation. Trump ordered the US Navy to "shoot and kill any boat" laying mines in the strait. Turkey is conspicuously absent from the coalition. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has said Turkey will consider demining — but only after a US-Iran peace agreement.

1. Turkey Is Doing Just Fine (Hakan Fidan, Iran-Turkey channel)

Turkey has Iran's confidence, has gotten ships through, and is the only country in a position to demine after a deal. The other coalition members can't do that.

Iran's relationship with Turkey is operational, not theoretical. On March 13, Iran authorized a Turkish-owned ship to transit the Strait. Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu was actively negotiating with Tehran for 14 additional Turkish vessels to follow. That kind of bilateral access is not available to Italy, France, or the UK — whose ships are not transiting the strait at Iran's invitation. Turkey is the only NATO state with a working line into Iranian maritime authority during the blockade.

Mediating across multiple conflicts is now Ankara's pitch. Turkey is casting itself as the "adult in the room" across Iran, Ukraine, and Gaza. Turkey participated in the March 29 Pakistan-hosted meeting with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan on reopening the Strait, with Turkey saying afterward that Iran and the US had the will to continue talks and that he was optimistic about the ceasefire. Turkey's position is that demining is the post-deal step it's specifically equipped to take, given Iran's trust.

2. Turkey Should Step Up (Italy-led coalition, NATO without Ankara)

Italy is deploying ships. The coalition is moving without Turkey. "May consider after a deal" is a way of saying no.

The minesweeping coalition is happening without Turkey. Italy's April 24 announcement of 4 ships including 2 minesweepers is the most concrete operational step any NATO state has taken on the strait. The UK, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands are joining. Turkey is not. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has signaled NATO allies may take action on Hormuz — and Turkey, as a NATO member, would be a natural participant — but Ankara has stayed out of the coalition formation.

A conditional offer is a way to claim mediator status without true commitment. Turkey can credibly claim mediator status without committing forces, can preserve its bilateral relationship with Iran by not joining a coalition Tehran opposes, and can accept credit for the eventual peace if it materializes. From the Italy-led coalition's vantage, Turkey is not blocking demining but is also not helping it.

Where This Lands

Turkey is already the only NATO state Iran trusts and is best positioned to demine when the time comes; Turkey is hedging by staying out of the actual coalition forming this week; and Turkey's contribution is gated to a peace deal that is moving away from us, not toward us.

Sources